Rúben Dias
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rúben Dias's performance-implied value at EUR 33.7M-73.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 29.1M-66.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.9M-32.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €48.5M vs market €55.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -58% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2140 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1579
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €17.9M – €32.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+60 Elo); relative output up 250% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -73% to -34%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 26 | 2140 | 63% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1579 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 27 | 2269 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1545 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 30 | 2557 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1572 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 26 | 1998 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1539 | 1915 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2403 | 70% | 2 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 1537 | 1866 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 32 | 2845 | 83% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1550 | 1883 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 2 | 180 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 1331 | 1619 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 1365 | 1583 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 32 | 2868 | 94% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 1358 | 1683 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 24 | 2151 | 70% | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 1332 | 1605 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 506 | 0 | 0 | 1673 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 451 | 0 | 0 | 1733 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 766 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1726 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 12 | 1047 | 1 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 243 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 663 | 0 | 1 | 1722 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1585 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 11 | 970 | 0 | 0 | 1649 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 247 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1607 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2019/20 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 6 | 570 | 1 | 1 | 1576 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 5 | 405 | 0 | 0 | 1692 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1771 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Piqué Laliga · 2014 | 27 | €36.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Sergi Roberto Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €40.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Kieran Trippier Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Nacho Fernández Laliga · 2018 | 28 | €30.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Premier League · 2024 | 28 | €38.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Kyle Walker Premier League · 2020 | 30 | €40.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Diego Godín Laliga · 2016 | 30 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Nathan Aké Premier League · 2024 | 29 | €40.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sept 2020 | Benfica | Man City | €71.6M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica B | Benfica | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Estrela A. F | Benfica Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.