Marcus Rashford

28 yrs · Left winger (also ST) · England
FC Barcelona · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
3/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€40.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€20.6M – €43.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€31.4M – €64.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€11.5M – €26.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€12.1M – €43.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€20.6M – €43.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€31.4M – €64.4M
Projected value (24 months)€11.5M – €26.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€40.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Marcus Rashford's performance-implied value at EUR 31.4M-64.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.6M-43.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.5M-26.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (1762 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 3

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite97.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.7 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €32.4M vs market €40.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-55% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €85.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1762 (52% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.87
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.40
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
98 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1787
Opponent strength
1480
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€11.5M – €26.8M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+155 Elo); league level down (-99 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -48% to -7%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1762 league minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC BarcelonaLaligaLW32176252%890.870.40148017870.95
2024/25Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLW1598229%410.460.41154516031.23
2024/25Aston VillaPremier LeagueLW1044413%231.010.56158816951.23
2023/24Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLW33227867%730.400.37157615941.14
2022/23Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLW35289185%1750.680.52157116991.23
2021/22Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLW25123336%420.440.37159316091.17
2020/21Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLW37292485%11110.680.44156117411.19
2019/20Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLW31265578%1790.880.57156017201.14
2018/19Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueST33234469%1090.730.46155116691.22
2017/18Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLW35180753%750.600.37152617471.15
2016/17Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLW32170350%520.370.30154416941.07
2015/16Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueST1186125%520.730.53154216191.08

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona11579541632
2025/26Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona424911—
2025/26World CupEngland311510—
2025/26SupercopaFC Barcelona232001560
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAston Villa4309021710
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United6309111552
2024/25Fa CupAston Villa318721—
2024/25Community ShieldManchester United183001893
2023/24Fa CupManchester United546411—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United4290021606
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United9560621602
2022/23Fa CupManchester United648312—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United5257101660
2021/22Fa CupManchester United216700—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United7437211613
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United6416601649
2020/21Fa CupManchester United322612—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United6414121542
2019/20Fa CupManchester United417200—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United10724211726
2018/19Fa CupManchester United422411—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United8344321582
2017/18Fa CupManchester United526310—
2017/18Uefa Super CupManchester United145001940
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United11767241550
2016/17Fa CupManchester United326930—
2016/17Community ShieldManchester United120001659
2015/16Fa CupManchester United432910—
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United3225201538

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Romelu Lukaku
Serie A · 2023
30€40.0M€22.0Mfell
Marco Asensio
Laliga · 2023
27€25.0M€20.0Mfell
Ousmane Dembélé
Ligue 1 · 2024
27€60.0M€100Mrose
Neymar
Ligue 1 · 2022
30€75.0M€30.0Mfell
Edin Dzeko
Premier League · 2014
28€24.0M€15.0Mfell
Douglas Costa
Serie A · 2018
28€55.0M€24.0Mfell
Riyad Mahrez
Premier League · 2020
29€48.0M€35.0Mfell
Gonzalo Higuaín
Laliga · 2013
26€30.0M€43.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026BarcelonaMan UtdFree / loan€40.0M
23 Jul 2025Man UtdBarcelonaFree / loan€50.0M
30 Jun 2025Aston VillaMan UtdFree / loan€50.0M
2 Feb 2025Man UtdAston VillaFree / loan€55.0M
1 Jan 2016Man Utd U18Man UtdUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Man Utd YouthMan Utd U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.