Ousmane Dembélé
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ousmane Dembélé's performance-implied value at EUR 31.3M-54.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 58.9M-113.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 44.0M-70.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (1063 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €83.0M vs market €100M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1063 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1448
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €44.0M – €70.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -51% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1063 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 22 | 1063 | 35% | 10 | 7 | 1.44 | 0.45 | 1448 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 29 | 1736 | 57% | 21 | 8 | 1.50 | 0.66 | 1480 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RW | 26 | 1509 | 49% | 3 | 9 | 0.72 | 0.44 | 1495 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 25 | 1415 | 41% | 5 | 7 | 0.76 | 0.43 | 1493 | 1696 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 21 | 1411 | 41% | 1 | 13 | 0.89 | 0.58 | 1533 | 1686 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 30 | 1780 | 52% | 6 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.30 | 1538 | 1743 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 5 | 358 | 10% | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 1519 | 1813 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 29 | 1671 | 49% | 8 | 4 | 0.65 | 0.32 | 1502 | 1873 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 17 | 930 | 27% | 3 | 7 | 0.97 | 0.33 | 1487 | 1851 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 2041 | 67% | 6 | 13 | 0.84 | 0.41 | 1525 | 1705 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 26 | 1941 | 57% | 12 | 5 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 1441 | 1396 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 12 | 738 | 7 | 2 | 1730 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 3 | 213 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1564 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 15 | 1166 | 8 | 6 | 1700 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 11 | 954 | 2 | 2 | 1685 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 1397 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 415 | 1 | 2 | 1718 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 198 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 141 | 0 | 0 | 1732 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 248 | 0 | 0 | 1500 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 3 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 1811 |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1829 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 1 | 45 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 381 | 3 | 2 | 1625 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 6 | 334 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 208 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 4 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 8 | 417 | 3 | 1 | 1666 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 4 | 332 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1578 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 3 | 143 | 1 | 0 | 1743 |
| 2017/18 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1855 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 57 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 10 | 769 | 2 | 6 | 1673 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 510 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2016/17 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1853 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neymar Ligue 1 · 2021 | 29 | €100M | €60.0M | fell |
| Juan Cuadrado Serie A · 2018 | 30 | €28.0M | €14.5M | fell |
| Mauro Icardi Ligue 1 · 2020 | 27 | €60.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Romelu Lukaku Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Douglas Costa Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €55.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Marco Reus Bundesliga · 2017 | 28 | €35.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Marco Asensio Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Leandro Trossard Premier League · 2024 | 30 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2023 | Barcelona | PSG | €50.0M | €60.0M |
| 25 Aug 2017 | Dortmund | Barcelona | €148M | €33.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Stade Rennais | Dortmund | €35.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Oct 2015 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Rennes U17 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Rennes Jugend | Rennes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Nov 2010 | Évreux Jugend | Rennes Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.