Joachim Andersen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joachim Andersen's performance-implied value at EUR 11.8M-26.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.5M-23.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.2M-12.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 0
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €16.6M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -65% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2877 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1576
- Opponent strength
- 1597
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.2M – €12.3M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 75% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -61% to -40%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CB | 33 | 2877 | 84% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1597 | 1576 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2584 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1583 | 1555 | 1.23 |
| 2024/25 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1500 | 1620 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3417 | 100% | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1583 | 1562 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 32 | 2783 | 81% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1548 | 1536 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 34 | 2915 | 85% | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1569 | 1537 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CB | 31 | 2730 | 80% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1587 | 1352 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 3 | 191 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1453 | 1587 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 18 | 1531 | 61% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1423 | 1566 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2880 | 84% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1445 | 1407 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | CB | 7 | 545 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1499 | 1393 | 0.86 |
| 2017/18 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | CB | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1364 | 1219 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | CB | 22 | 1814 | 59% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 1351 | 1297 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | CB | 18 | 1620 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1292 | 1348 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | CB | 7 | 458 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 1335 | 1379 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 3 | 276 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 391 | 1 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Dunk Premier League · 2023 | 32 | €16.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Iñigo Martínez Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €32.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Nélson Semedo Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €15.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Harry Maguire Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €38.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Marc Bartra Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €22.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Ryan Bennett Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gabriel Paulista Laliga · 2020 | 30 | €17.5M | €7.0M | fell |
| Dan Burn Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2024 | Crystal Palace | Fulham | €29.5M | €35.0M |
| 28 Jul 2021 | Lyon | Crystal Palace | €17.5M | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Fulham | Lyon | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Lyon | Fulham | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 12 Jul 2019 | Sampdoria | Lyon | €24.0M | €25.0M |
| 25 Aug 2017 | FC Twente | Sampdoria | €1.8M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Twente U21 | FC Twente | Unknown | €150k |
| 8 Nov 2013 | FC Twente U19 | FC Twente U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Aug 2013 | Midtjylland U19 | FC Twente U19 | €670k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FCM Youth | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Aug 2011 | FCK Youth | FCM Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Greve IF U19 | FCK Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.