David Raya
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Raya's performance-implied value at EUR 38.8M-64.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.3M-41.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.0M-27.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.5M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3330 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1583
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.0M – €27.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+62 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -55% to -43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1583 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1554 | 1813 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | GK | 32 | 2880 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1572 | 1794 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brentford FC | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1566 | 1623 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Brentford FC | Premier League | GK | 24 | 2160 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1581 | 1483 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 13 | 1170 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 13 | 1170 | 0 | 0 | 1691 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 9 | 840 | 0 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ederson Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €40.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Alisson Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Claudio Bravo Laliga · 2015 | 32 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Hugo Lloris Premier League · 2018 | 32 | €25.0M | €14.5M | fell |
| Manuel Neuer Bundesliga · 2016 | 30 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Marc-André ter Stegen Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €72.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Thibaut Courtois Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €60.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Edouard Mendy Premier League · 2022 | 30 | €32.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | Brentford | Arsenal | €31.9M | €35.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Arsenal | Brentford | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Brentford | Arsenal | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 6 Jul 2019 | Blackburn | Brentford | €3.4M | €1.5M |
| 5 Jan 2015 | Southport | Blackburn | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 19 Sept 2014 | Blackburn | Southport | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Blackburn U18 | Blackburn | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Cornellà Youth | Blackburn U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.