Vitaly Janelt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vitaly Janelt's performance-implied value at EUR 17.1M-33.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.5M-17.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-15.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.56x the positional average in the league (1437 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.8M vs market €16.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1437 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1628
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.1M – €15.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -48% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1437 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | DM | 25 | 1437 | 42% | 1 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 1628 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | DM | 32 | 2267 | 66% | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 1581 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CM | 38 | 3073 | 90% | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1572 | 1500 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brentford FC | Premier League | DM | 35 | 2210 | 65% | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1582 | 1623 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CM | 31 | 2308 | 67% | 4 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1552 | 1483 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 199 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 133 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Premier League · 2021 | 30 | €18.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Youri Tielemans Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Rodrigo Bentancur Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Manu Trigueros Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €12.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Paul Pogba Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €48.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Christian Nørgaard Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €16.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Cheikhou Kouyaté Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Fred Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €20.0M | €17.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2020 | VfL Bochum | Brentford | €600k | €675k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Leipzig | VfL Bochum | €150k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | VfL Bochum | Leipzig | Free / loan | €600k |
| 9 Jan 2017 | Leipzig | VfL Bochum | Free / loan | €125k |
| 15 Jul 2016 | RB Leipzig U19 | Leipzig | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | RB Leipzig U17 | RB Leipzig U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Hamburg U17 | RB Leipzig U17 | €100k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | HSV Yth. | Hamburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | SSC Hagen Yth. | HSV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Bargfeld Yth. | SSC Hagen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.