Mykola Matvienko

30 yrs · Centre-back (also LB, LM) · Ukraine
FC Shakhtar Donetsk · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 182 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 Dec 2027
Market value
€12.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€5.7M – €11.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.7M – €6.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.2M – €6.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€9.6M – €268k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€5.7M – €11.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.7M – €6.0M
Projected value (24 months)€3.2M – €6.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€12.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mykola Matvienko's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-6.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.7M-11.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-6.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.

Bargain Index: 5

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average67th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €7.0M vs market €12.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-66% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1912 (71% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
67 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1420
Opponent strength
1139
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.2M – €6.5M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 76% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -32% to -8%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB27191271%010.050.03113914200.25
2024/25FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB22195372%330.280.12120214140.28
2023/24FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB23207077%300.130.06124914970.34
2022/23FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB28245891%230.180.07126315460.38
2021/22FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB14110868%110.160.08127815680.45
2020/21FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB20171973%120.160.08129715510.49
2019/20FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB17141071%110.130.07133316190.54
2018/19FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB1181641%200.220.07130416250.57
2017/18Vorskla PoltavaPremier LigaLB16144073%000.000.06130214070.62
2017/18FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB21126%000.000.03123616760.62
2016/17Karpaty Lviv (-2021)Premier LigaLM14124743%110.140.21129212570.56
2015/16FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB21697%000.000.04131816090.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk5480001346
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk2210001315
2025/26Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk19000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk8720001633
2024/25Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk334000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk5450101635
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk2180101543
2023/24Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk218001—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6540001697
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4390011579
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4360001681
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk4290001463
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4360011539
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4298001701
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6540001641
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6536001697
2019/20Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk112000—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk5450001720
2018/19Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk327000—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk190011603
2017/18Ukrainian CupVorskla Poltava330000—
2017/18Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk19001—
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk2180011443
2016/17Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk19000—
2015/16Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk422600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rúben Semedo
Super League 1 · 2021
27€8.0M€3.2Mfell
Ben Davies
Scottish Premiership · 2023
28€3.5M€2.5Mfell
Kenny Lala
Super League 1 · 2022
31€3.0M€3.0Mflat
Oleksandr Tymchyk
Premier Liga · 2024
27€4.0M€3.5Mflat
Min-jae Kim
Super Lig · 2022
26€14.0M€45.0Mrose
Vitor Hugo
Super Lig · 2021
30€5.5M€4.5Mflat
Moisés
Premier Liga · 2024
29€4.5M€4.0Mflat
Jack Hendry
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
27€5.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 Dec 2017Vorskla PoltavaShakhtar D.Free / loan€800k
3 Jul 2017Shakhtar D.Vorskla PoltavaFree / loan€800k
1 Jul 2017Shakhtar IIShakhtar D.Unknown€800k
30 Jun 2017Karpaty LvivShakhtar IIFree / loan€800k
20 Feb 2017Shakhtar IIKarpaty LvivFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2015Shakhtar U19Shakhtar IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Mykola Matvienko · MoneyballAI