Nicky Cadden
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicky Cadden's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (1490 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €190k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1490 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1189
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €232k – €518k
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 60% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -57% to -32%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1490 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 21 | 1490 | 50% | 0 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.16 | 1189 | 1280 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 24 | 1538 | 52% | 5 | 5 | 0.59 | 0.40 | 1248 | 1303 | 0.34 |
| 2018/19 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 12 | 512 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1292 | 1266 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 3 | 171 | 0 | 1 | 1401 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1390 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 2 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladlen Yurchenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Liam Polworth Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 30 | €350k | €100k | fell |
| Jakov Basic Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €600k | rose |
| Kyrylo Kovalets Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Dmytro Myshnyov Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Isaac Cofie Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €700k | €200k | fell |
| Yevgen Banada Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Fabry Castro Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €350k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2024 | Barnsley | Hibernian FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 11 Jul 2022 | Forest Green | Barnsley | Free / loan | €175k |
| 3 Jul 2020 | Morton | Forest Green | Free / loan | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Livingston FC | Morton | Free / loan | €175k |
| 12 May 2019 | Ayr United | Livingston FC | Free / loan | €175k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Livingston FC | Ayr United | Free / loan | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Airdrieonians | Livingston FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Airdrie U20 | Airdrieonians | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Motherwell FC U17 | Airdrie U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.