Eric Smith
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Eric Smith's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-5.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2314 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €3.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; relative output up 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -45% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CB | 27 | 2314 | 76% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 1494 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2828 | 92% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1512 | 1330 | 0.94 |
| 2018/19 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 2 | 97 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1328 | 1478 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 3 | 322 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Da Silva Ligue 1 · 2018 | 30 | €5.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Dylan Bronn Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Matthieu Udol Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €2.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Christopher Operi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Andreas Granqvist Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €6.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Bram Nuytinck Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €2.8M | €2.8M | flat |
| Jeremy Toljan Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Bakaye Dibassy Ligue 1 · 2020 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | KAA Gent | St. Pauli | €600k | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | St. Pauli | KAA Gent | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 7 Jan 2021 | KAA Gent | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Norrköping | KAA Gent | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 21 May 2020 | KAA Gent | Norrköping | Free / loan | €475k |
| 31 Dec 2019 | Tromsø IL | KAA Gent | Free / loan | €600k |
| 29 Aug 2019 | KAA Gent | Tromsø IL | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Norrköping | KAA Gent | Unknown | €750k |
| 20 Jan 2016 | Halmstads BK | Norrköping | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Aug 2014 | Halmstad U19 | Halmstads BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Halmstad U17 | Halmstad U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.