Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oleksiy Gutsulyak's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-2.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.34x the positional average in the league (1759 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.1M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1759 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.72
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1290
- Opponent strength
- 1170
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -38% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1759 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | RW | 25 | 1759 | 65% | 8 | 6 | 0.72 | 0.52 | 1170 | 1290 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | RW | 29 | 2449 | 91% | 11 | 4 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 1211 | 1236 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | SC Dnipro-1 | Premier Liga | RM | 25 | 2100 | 78% | 9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.27 | 1254 | 1335 | 0.34 |
| 2021/22 | SC Dnipro-1 | Premier Liga | LM | 13 | 1025 | 63% | 4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.36 | 1288 | 1365 | 0.45 |
| 2021/22 | Desna Chernigiv | Premier Liga | LM | 2 | 141 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1212 | 1298 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Desna Chernigiv | Premier Liga | LM | 24 | 1672 | 71% | 2 | 7 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 1287 | 1331 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | LM | 12 | 882 | 45% | 2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 1382 | 1195 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Desna Chernigiv | Premier Liga | LM | 2 | 99 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1608 | 1380 | 0.54 |
| 2018/19 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | LW | 20 | 1449 | 73% | 4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.54 | 1380 | 1262 | 0.57 |
| 2017/18 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | LM | 15 | 1195 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1354 | 1265 | 0.62 |
| 2016/17 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | LM | 13 | 707 | 25% | 3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 1269 | 1257 | 0.56 |
| 2015/16 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | LM | 15 | 359 | 15% | 2 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.49 | 1345 | 1264 | 0.54 |
| 2014/15 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | LM | 7 | 227 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1373 | 1255 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 6 | 535 | 1 | 1 | 1401 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 3 | 330 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 2 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | SC Dnipro-1 | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 1463 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Dnipro-1 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | SC Dnipro-1 | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SC Dnipro-1 | 2 | 111 | 0 | 0 | 1418 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Desna Chernigiv | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1560 |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | Desna Chernigiv | 2 | 42 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | 3 | 227 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saba Lobjanidze Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €4.3M | €3.0M | fell |
| Sebastián Palacios Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Maksym Tretyakov Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Guilherme Super Lig · 2020 | 29 | €3.2M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ayoub El Kaabi Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Élie Youan Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Edin Visca Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Yuriy Klymchuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €900k | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | SC Dnipro-1 | Polissya | €600k | €2.5M |
| 15 Aug 2021 | Desna | SC Dnipro-1 | €500k | €900k |
| 21 Jan 2020 | Karpaty Lviv | Desna | €300k | €300k |
| 2 Feb 2017 | FC Villarreal C | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Karpaty Lviv | FC Villarreal C | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Mar 2015 | Karpaty U19 | Karpaty Lviv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2013 | UFK Lviv | Karpaty U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.