Antonio Sivera
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Antonio Sivera's performance-implied value at EUR 3.7M-7.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-4.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.7M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3420 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1410
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €4.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -57% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1493 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | GK | 32 | 2812 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1503 | 1418 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1490 | 1431 | 1.00 |
| 2021/22 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | GK | 4 | 276 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1526 | 1358 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | GK | 1 | 72 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1704 | 1428 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | GK | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1522 | 1452 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | GK | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1424 | 1495 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | GK | 1 | 63 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1781 | 1501 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Viviano Serie A · 2016 | 31 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Stole Dimitrievski Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Benoît Costil Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €7.5M | €5.5M | fell |
| Conan Ledesma Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Sergio Herrera Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Andrea Consigli Serie A · 2015 | 28 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Frederik Rönnow Bundesliga · 2024 | 32 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Marco Silvestri Serie A · 2022 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2020 | UD Almería | Alavés | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 13 Jan 2020 | Alavés | UD Almería | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 19 Jul 2017 | Valencia B | Alavés | €2.0M | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Hércules U19 | Valencia U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Hércules Alican | Hércules U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.