Kai Havertz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kai Havertz's performance-implied value at EUR 35.0M-51.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 38.7M-83.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.7M-49.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (583 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Elite | 94.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €57.6M vs market €55.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 583 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.77
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1567
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.7M – €49.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 38 pts; team strength up (+62 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -77% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 583 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | ST | 12 | 583 | 17% | 2 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.33 | 1567 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | ST | 23 | 1875 | 55% | 9 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.32 | 1566 | 1813 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | AM | 37 | 2640 | 77% | 13 | 7 | 0.68 | 0.37 | 1569 | 1794 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | ST | 35 | 2579 | 75% | 7 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 1559 | 1579 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | ST | 29 | 1811 | 53% | 8 | 4 | 0.60 | 0.37 | 1526 | 1737 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 27 | 1520 | 44% | 4 | 5 | 0.53 | 0.38 | 1527 | 1735 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | AM | 30 | 2463 | 80% | 12 | 6 | 0.66 | 0.45 | 1508 | 1654 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | AM | 34 | 2903 | 95% | 17 | 4 | 0.65 | 0.42 | 1505 | 1625 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | AM | 30 | 2140 | 70% | 3 | 9 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 1501 | 1569 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | RW | 24 | 1450 | 47% | 4 | 6 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 1542 | 1547 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Germany | 3 | 235 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 162 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 5 | 136 | 3 | 1 | 1573 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 8 | 561 | 4 | 2 | 1659 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 10 | 832 | 1 | 0 | 1669 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1920 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 10 | 617 | 2 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 9 | 672 | 3 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 178 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Super Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 1 | 1689 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 12 | 787 | 1 | 2 | 1682 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 147 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 450 | 4 | 2 | 1627 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 450 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 434 | 0 | 0 | 1679 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 423 | 3 | 3 | 1498 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 330 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1726 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Díaz Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €75.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Lucas Vázquez Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Jack Grealish Premier League · 2024 | 29 | €60.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Gareth Bale Laliga · 2020 | 31 | €32.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Gabriel Jesus Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €70.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Isco Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €40.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Nico Gaitán Laliga · 2017 | 29 | €20.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Eddie Nketiah Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €30.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Chelsea | Arsenal | €75.0M | €55.0M |
| 4 Sept 2020 | Leverkusen | Chelsea | €100M | €81.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Leverkusen U17 | Leverkusen | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Leverkusen Yth. | Leverkusen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Aachen Yth. | Leverkusen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Mariadorf Yth. | Aachen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.