Donyell Malen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Donyell Malen's performance-implied value at EUR 20.1M-59.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 33.5M-55.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.3M-43.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (2123 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €44.6M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2123 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.89
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.62
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1663
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.3M – €43.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; changed club; role change RW -> ST; relative output up 64% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -37% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | ST | 18 | 1478 | 43% | 14 | 2 | 0.97 | 0.62 | 1495 | 1638 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 21 | 645 | 19% | 4 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.46 | 1569 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RW | 14 | 612 | 20% | 3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 1462 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RW | 14 | 298 | 9% | 3 | 0 | 0.91 | 0.39 | 1510 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RW | 27 | 1784 | 58% | 13 | 3 | 0.81 | 0.39 | 1454 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RW | 26 | 1725 | 56% | 9 | 7 | 0.83 | 0.45 | 1511 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 27 | 1693 | 55% | 5 | 6 | 0.58 | 0.38 | 1517 | 1643 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | ST | 32 | 2455 | 80% | 19 | 8 | 0.99 | 0.50 | 1348 | 1567 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | ST | 14 | 1191 | 51% | 11 | 5 | 1.21 | 0.52 | 1343 | 1553 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 31 | 966 | 32% | 10 | 5 | 1.40 | 0.43 | 1327 | 1634 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | ST | 4 | 107 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1304 | 1636 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 6 | 329 | 3 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 1549 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Netherlands | 3 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 65 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 237 | 2 | 1 | 1649 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 3 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 459 | 1 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 135 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 245 | 0 | 0 | 1572 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 223 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 392 | 3 | 0 | 1533 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 145 | 1 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1892 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 675 | 5 | 1 | 1525 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 253 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 176 | 2 | 1 | 1412 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 360 | 2 | 2 | 1434 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 309 | 3 | 0 | 1543 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 1 | 2 | 1586 |
| 2019/20 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1746 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 1735 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1427 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yannick Carrasco Laliga · 2021 | 28 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Chicharito Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Nico González Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €35.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Matteo Politano Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €30.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Christian Pulisic Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Leon Bailey Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €28.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Saïd Benrahma Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| André Schürrle Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Aston Villa | Roma | €25.0M | €45.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Roma | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €45.0M |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Aston Villa | Roma | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Dortmund | Aston Villa | €25.0M | €28.0M |
| 27 Jul 2021 | PSV | Dortmund | €30.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PSV U21 | PSV | Unknown | €750k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Arsenal U23 | PSV U21 | €600k | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jul 2015 | Ajax U17 | Arsenal U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Hollandia Yth. | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.