
Armando Obispo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Armando Obispo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-4.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-4.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 54.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 807 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1606
- Opponent strength
- 1240
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €4.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -64% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 807 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 17 | 807 | 26% | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 1240 | 1606 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 14 | 413 | 13% | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 1307 | 1632 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 9 | 162 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1300 | 1659 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 22 | 1724 | 56% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 1343 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 17 | 1056 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 1378 | 1641 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 5 | 158 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1360 | 1567 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CB | 26 | 2337 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1339 | 1393 | 0.62 |
| 2017/18 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 2 | 21 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1187 | 1636 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 322 | 0 | 0 | 1702 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Curaçao | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1297 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 260 | 0 | 0 | 1767 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 134 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 1779 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 347 | 1 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 345 | 0 | 1 | 1548 |
| 2022/23 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 221 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roderick Miranda Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Çağlar Söyüncü Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Ewerton Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Moritz Bauer Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 28 | €1.6M | €400k | fell |
| Mert Müldür Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €4.2M | €7.0M | rose |
| Derrick Köhn Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Charlie Mulgrew Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 30 | €2.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Oleksandr Tymchyk Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2020 | Vitesse | PSV | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | PSV | Vitesse | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | PSV U19 | PSV | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | PSV U17 | PSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | PSV Yth. | PSV U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.