Caoimhín Kelleher
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Caoimhín Kelleher's performance-implied value at EUR 16.8M-35.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.9M-39.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.8M-27.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €29.4M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3330 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1607
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.8M – €27.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 71 pts; changed club; team strength down (-188 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -41% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1607 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | GK | 10 | 900 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1597 | 1800 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | GK | 10 | 900 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1507 | 1755 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1355 | 1771 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1603 | 1898 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1533 | 1763 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Liverpool FC | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1535 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1596 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €30.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| David Soria Laliga · 2019 | 26 | €15.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Neto Laliga · 2018 | 29 | €15.0M | €14.5M | flat |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| David Raya Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Yassine Bounou Laliga · 2021 | 30 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| André Onana Premier League · 2024 | 28 | €35.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Martin Dúbravka Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Liverpool | Brentford | €14.8M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Liverpool U23 | Liverpool | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Liverpool U18 | Liverpool U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ringmahon | Liverpool U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.