Fiete Arp
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fiete Arp's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.32x the positional average in the league (1691 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 78
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €1.7M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1691 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1215
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €819k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 63 pts; changed club; team strength down (-81 Elo); league level down (-187 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -42% to +8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1691 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | AM | 20 | 1691 | 85% | 8 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 1268 | 1215 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Holstein Kiel | Bundesliga | AM | 23 | 698 | 23% | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.50 | 1527 | 1296 | 0.94 |
| 2017/18 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | ST | 18 | 846 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.43 | 1493 | 1410 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 4 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Holstein Kiel | 2 | 55 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siebe Schrijvers Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €2.4M | €3.3M | rose |
| Kolbeinn Finnsson Superliga · 2024 | 25 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Fernando Costanza Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Tatsuhiro Sakamoto Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 27 | €1.0M | €1.8M | rose |
| Andreas Tatos Super League 1 · 2014 | 25 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Jamie McGrath Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 25 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Jamie Hamill Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €700k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Holstein Kiel | Odense BK | €250k | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Bayern II | Holstein Kiel | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Holstein Kiel | FC Bayern II | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Bayern II | Holstein Kiel | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Bayern Munich | FC Bayern II | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hamburg | Bayern Munich | €3.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hamburg U17 | Hamburg | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | HSV Yth. | Hamburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Wahlstedt Yth. | HSV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.