Dayot Upamecano
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dayot Upamecano's performance-implied value at EUR 25.3M-61.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 52.5M-90.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 30.8M-55.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €68.7M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1798 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1871
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €30.8M – €55.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+99 Elo); relative output down 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -58% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1798 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 24 | 1798 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 1485 | 1871 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 20 | 1763 | 58% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 1485 | 1772 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 25 | 1770 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 1500 | 1715 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2349 | 77% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 1512 | 1817 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2209 | 72% | 1 | 6 | 0.29 | 0.09 | 1499 | 1847 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2332 | 76% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1546 | 1657 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2360 | 77% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 1520 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 15 | 1292 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1530 | 1650 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2264 | 74% | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1524 | 1570 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 12 | 666 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1519 | 1594 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 12 | 1013 | 1 | 2 | 1737 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 3 | 256 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 11 | 990 | 0 | 1 | 1636 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 175 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 7 | 500 | 0 | 0 | 1575 |
| 2023/24 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 10 | 715 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 3 | 244 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 8 | 660 | 0 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1713 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 55 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 7 | 605 | 0 | 0 | 1658 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 5 | 471 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 661 | 0 | 0 | 1651 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1598 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 200 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 516 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1635 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Fußballclub Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1541 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fußballclub Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1342 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Hernández Bundesliga · 2022 | 26 | €50.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Daniel Carvajal Laliga · 2018 | 26 | €60.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Niklas Süle Bundesliga · 2022 | 27 | €35.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Ferland Mendy Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Sergi Roberto Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €40.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Samuel Umtiti Laliga · 2018 | 25 | €60.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Raphaël Varane Laliga · 2018 | 25 | €70.0M | €64.0M | flat |
| Mats Hummels Bundesliga · 2018 | 30 | €60.0M | €24.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2021 | Leipzig | Bayern Munich | €42.5M | €60.0M |
| 13 Jan 2017 | Salzburg | Leipzig | €18.5M | €5.0M |
| 11 Jul 2015 | VAFC U19 | Salzburg | €2.2M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Évreux Jugend | VAFC U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.