Jens Odgaard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jens Odgaard's performance-implied value at EUR 5.7M-26.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.2M-13.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-12.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1380 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.7M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1380 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1481
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €12.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -44% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1380 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | AM | 26 | 1380 | 40% | 5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 1481 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | AM | 29 | 1968 | 58% | 6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 1491 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | ST | 17 | 435 | 14% | 1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.34 | 1307 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | ST | 10 | 431 | 13% | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 1528 | 1579 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 29 | 2185 | 71% | 9 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.31 | 1338 | 1530 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | ST | 30 | 2472 | 81% | 8 | 6 | 0.51 | 0.72 | 1359 | 1260 | 0.60 |
| 2019/20 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | ST | 24 | 1864 | 80% | 7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.45 | 1357 | 1317 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RW | 1 | 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 1320 | 1351 | 0.78 |
| 2016/17 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | RW | 7 | 166 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.42 | 1321 | 1299 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 11 | 427 | 2 | 1 | 1472 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1724 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 5 | 128 | 0 | 1 | 1635 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 3 | 125 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 1282 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 47 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 194 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 1375 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 3 | 138 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 253 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | Lyngby Boldklub | 1 | 120 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adem Ljajic Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Mario Pašalić Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Unai López Laliga · 2021 | 26 | €12.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| José Manuel Jurado Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Soualiho Meïté Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Gaetano Castrovilli Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Rémy Cabella Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €7.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Aarón Martín Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | Bologna | €4.8M | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Bologna | AZ Alkmaar | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | Bologna | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sassuolo | AZ Alkmaar | €3.6M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | RKC Waalwijk | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 24 Jul 2021 | Sassuolo | RKC Waalwijk | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Pescara | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 22 Jan 2021 | Sassuolo | Pescara | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 20 Jan 2021 | FC Lugano | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Sassuolo | FC Lugano | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Heerenveen | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sassuolo | Heerenveen | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Inter | Sassuolo | €5.8M | €800k |
| 5 Jul 2017 | Lyngby BK | Inter U19 | €1.3M | €300k |
| 7 Jul 2016 | Lyngby BK U19 | Lyngby BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Lyngby BK Youth | Lyngby BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Hilleröd F U19 | Lyngby BK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.