Mikel Oyarzabal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mikel Oyarzabal's performance-implied value at EUR 7.3M-30.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.9M-28.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.2M-17.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.16x the positional average in the league (2715 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €20.4M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -62% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2715 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.59
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1462
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.2M – €17.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -70% to -42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 34 | 2715 | 79% | 15 | 4 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 1487 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2263 | 66% | 9 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 1492 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 33 | 2160 | 63% | 9 | 3 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 1490 | 1588 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 23 | 1215 | 36% | 4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 1514 | 1604 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 22 | 1676 | 49% | 9 | 3 | 0.64 | 0.52 | 1533 | 1559 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 33 | 2429 | 71% | 11 | 8 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 1558 | 1573 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 37 | 3064 | 90% | 10 | 11 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 1544 | 1567 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 37 | 3159 | 92% | 13 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 1541 | 1536 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 35 | 2804 | 82% | 12 | 7 | 0.61 | 0.54 | 1539 | 1535 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 38 | 2723 | 80% | 2 | 8 | 0.33 | 0.35 | 1564 | 1562 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 22 | 1481 | 43% | 6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 1582 | 1543 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 6 | 480 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Spain | 3 | 211 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 12 | 729 | 5 | 1 | 1535 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 6 | 455 | 4 | 4 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Sociedad | 7 | 589 | 2 | 0 | 1711 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 310 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 144 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 535 | 3 | 1 | 1600 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 344 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 472 | 0 | 1 | 1592 |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Real Sociedad | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | 1781 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 86 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 8 | 609 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 341 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 455 | 2 | 1 | 1499 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 448 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 123 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimitri Payet Premier League · 2017 | 30 | €26.0M | €12.5M | fell |
| Éder Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Ivan Perišić Serie A · 2017 | 28 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Franck Honorat Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Isi Palazón Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €12.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Andy Delort Ligue 1 · 2022 | 31 | €13.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Wahbi Khazri Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Gianluca Caprari Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2016 | Real Sociedad B | Real Sociedad | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | R. Sociedad U19 | Real Sociedad B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Real Sociedad Y | R. Sociedad U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2014 | SD Eibar Youth | Real Sociedad Y | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Real Sociedad Y | SD Eibar Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | SD Eibar Youth | Real Sociedad Y | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.