
Alban Lafont
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alban Lafont's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1395 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1465
- Opponent strength
- 1229
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €3.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; changed club; team strength up (+109 Elo); league level down (-186 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +26% (IQR -7% to +126%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1395 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–179%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | GK | 16 | 1395 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1229 | 1465 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | GK | 12 | 1080 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1409 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | GK | 28 | 2497 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1480 | 1309 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1447 | 1349 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1426 | 1457 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1438 | 1376 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | GK | 27 | 2430 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1431 | 1414 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | GK | 34 | 3015 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1450 | 1384 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1454 | 1352 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1431 | 1403 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | GK | 24 | 2145 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1432 | 1380 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 10 | 930 | 0 | 0 | 1480 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Ivory Coast | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Nantes | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2022/23 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Nantes | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1714 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Sá Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €2.5M | €7.5M | rose |
| Patrick Pentz Superliga · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Panagiotis Glykos Super League 1 · 2014 | 28 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Eloy Room Eredivisie · 2015 | 26 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Muhammed Şengezer Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.7M | €3.5M | rose |
| Rodrigo Rey Super League 1 · 2018 | 27 | €1.3M | €1.2M | flat |
| Jean Butez Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €2.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Mykyta Shevchenko Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Panathinaikos | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 17 Jul 2025 | FC Nantes | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Fiorentina | FC Nantes | €7.5M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Nantes | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Fiorentina | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 2 Jul 2018 | Toulouse | Fiorentina | €8.0M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Toulouse U19 | Toulouse | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.