Sven Botman
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sven Botman's performance-implied value at EUR 19.3M-37.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.9M-52.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.9M-35.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €36.4M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1839 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1602
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.9M – €35.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -57% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 25 | 1839 | 54% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1602 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 8 | 415 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1596 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 17 | 1378 | 40% | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 1609 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3129 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1561 | 1678 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2250 | 66% | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1429 | 1540 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 37 | 3311 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1436 | 1610 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | CB | 26 | 2340 | 100% | 2 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 1372 | 1317 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 8 | 544 | 1 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 263 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 5 | 418 | 0 | 0 | 1669 |
| 2021/22 | Trophee Des Champions | LOSC Lille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 8 | 663 | 0 | 1 | 1611 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 4 | 367 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €42.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Danny Rose Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €25.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Héctor Bellerín Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €25.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Mateo Musacchio Laliga · 2017 | 27 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Clément Lenglet Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €10.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Kieran Tierney Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €32.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Issa Diop Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €18.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €30.0M | €35.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Lille | Newcastle | €37.0M | €30.0M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Ajax U21 | Lille | €8.0M | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Heerenveen | Ajax U21 | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 27 Jul 2019 | Ajax U21 | Heerenveen | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Pancratius Yth. | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.