Jaka Bijol
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jaka Bijol's performance-implied value at EUR 12.5M-29.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.1M-28.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.4M-18.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €20.1M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1893 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1603
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.4M – €18.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; changed club; team strength up (+132 Elo); league level up (+111 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -53% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | CB | 25 | 1893 | 55% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1603 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 34 | 2964 | 87% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1495 | 1389 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 24 | 2083 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1482 | 1420 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2732 | 80% | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1467 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 2398 | 89% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 1354 | 1363 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 5 | 60 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1481 | 1383 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 25 | 621 | 23% | 1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.18 | 1389 | 1447 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 23 | 1118 | 41% | 4 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.20 | 1408 | 1547 | 0.69 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 5 | 465 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 3 | 225 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Hannover 96 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 157 | 0 | 0 | 1427 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 128 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1682 |
| 2018/19 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 1516 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cédric Soares Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Nayef Aguerd Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Kristoffer Ajer Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Adam Webster Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €17.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Héctor Moreno Laliga · 2015 | 27 | €6.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Conor Coady Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €12.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Florian Lejeune Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €8.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Serge Aurier Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €20.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Udinese | Leeds | €18.0M | €18.0M |
| 14 Jul 2022 | CSKA Moscow | Udinese | €5.8M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Hannover 96 | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 18 Sept 2020 | CSKA Moscow | Hannover 96 | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rudar Velenje | CSKA Moscow | €400k | €500k |
| 6 Jul 2017 | NK Bravo U19 | Rudar Velenje | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.