Gabriel Suazo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel Suazo's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-5.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-6.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.6M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2096 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1397
- Opponent strength
- 1503
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €5.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change LM -> LB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -63% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | LB | 29 | 2096 | 61% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1503 | 1397 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | LM | 30 | 2161 | 71% | 0 | 6 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1466 | 1437 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | LB | 31 | 2362 | 77% | 0 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1469 | 1437 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | LB | 18 | 1258 | 37% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1434 | 1347 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Toulouse | 8 | 578 | 2 | 0 | 1672 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Toulouse | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Starfelt Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Martin Valjent Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Omar Alderete Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €5.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw Bundesliga · 2020 | 29 | €9.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Joseph Okumu Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €9.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Dani Castellano Laliga · 2017 | 30 | €4.0M | €700k | fell |
| Rúben Vezo Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Giancarlo González Serie A · 2015 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2025 | Toulouse | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 16 Jan 2023 | Colo-Colo | Toulouse | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Colo-Colo U21 | Colo-Colo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.