Doğucan Haspolat
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Doğucan Haspolat's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-5.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.26x the positional average in the league (2610 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2610 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1348
- Opponent strength
- 1380
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €5.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +6% (IQR -17% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 29 | 2610 | 97% | 0 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1380 | 1348 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 29 | 2606 | 97% | 3 | 6 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 1382 | 1322 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 18 | 459 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1374 | 1293 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | DM | 3 | 95 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1316 | 1379 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | DM | 19 | 749 | 23% | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 1279 | 1377 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | DM | 31 | 2045 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1257 | 1312 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | CM | 12 | 281 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1271 | 1208 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | CM | 4 | 102 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1405 | 1273 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 14 | 427 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1477 | 1235 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 7 | 271 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1411 | 1267 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 1477 | 1236 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KVC Westerlo | 9 | 784 | 1 | 1 | 1369 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Trabzonspor | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 2 | 193 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro Super Lig · 2015 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Jens Toornstra Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Gaius Makouta Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.1M | fell |
| Tjaronn Chery Eredivisie · 2015 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Costinha Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €4.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Chiquinho Liga Portugal · 2019 | 24 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Casper De Norre Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.8M | flat |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo Serie A · 2019 | 26 | €9.0M | €24.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sept 2023 | Trabzonspor | KVC Westerlo | €600k | €2.4M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Kasimpasa | Trabzonspor | €1.2M | €2.0M |
| 13 Jan 2020 | Excelsior | Kasimpasa | €300k | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Excelsior U17 | Excelsior | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Excelsior Jeugd | Excelsior U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.