Costinha
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Costinha's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-6.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.6M-7.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-8.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.5M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1331 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1550
- Opponent strength
- 1232
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €8.5M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 70% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -54% to -7%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1331 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RB | 19 | 1331 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1232 | 1550 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RB | 20 | 1156 | 49% | 0 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 1273 | 1525 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RM | 34 | 3051 | 100% | 3 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 1389 | 1317 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RM | 33 | 2805 | 92% | 3 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 1395 | 1329 | 0.68 |
| 2020/21 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RB | 9 | 535 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1312 | 1320 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 7 | 413 | 1 | 0 | 1671 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 138 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 9 | 562 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 5 | 402 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ousseynou Ba Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €4.5M | €2.6M | fell |
| Douglas Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Dimitrios Siovas Super League 1 · 2016 | 28 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Nino Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Joe Worrall Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 22 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Stanley Nsoki Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Efe Ambrose Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 28 | €2.5M | €550k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2024 | Rio Ave | Olympiacos | €2.5M | €4.0M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Rio Ave U23 | Rio Ave | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rio Ave FC U19 | Rio Ave U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Braga U17 | Rio Ave FC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Braga U15 | Braga U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FC Porto Youth | Braga U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.