Yoane Wissa

30 yrs · Striker (also LW) · DR Congo
Newcastle United · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 176 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€25.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€14.4M – €33.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€11.4M – €25.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€5.3M – €13.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€22.2M – €10.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€14.4M – €33.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€11.4M – €25.3M
Projected value (24 months)€5.3M – €13.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€25.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Yoane Wissa's performance-implied value at EUR 11.4M-25.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.4M-33.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.3M-13.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (521 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceElite92.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.8 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €22.1M vs market €25.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-64% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €42.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
521 (15% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.34
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.38
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
92 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1631
Opponent strength
1578
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€5.3M – €13.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 70 pts; changed club; relative output down 43% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -79% to -32%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 521 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueST1952115%110.350.38157816311.30
2024/25Brentford FCPremier LeagueST35292986%1950.740.69157215831.23
2023/24Brentford FCPremier LeagueST34250873%1230.540.49155515001.14
2022/23Brentford FCPremier LeagueLW38160047%730.560.52154416231.23
2021/22Brentford FCPremier LeagueST30127337%710.570.73156214831.17
2020/21FC LorientLigue 1LW38268579%1050.500.58143513440.75
2016/17Angers SCOLigue 1LW2251%000.000.50141314170.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupDemocratic Republic of the Congo327030—
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueNewcastle United4101111677
2025/26Fa CupNewcastle United29600—
2024/25Fa CupBrentford FC11900—
2022/23Fa CupBrentford FC19000—
2021/22Fa CupBrentford FC16200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alexis Sánchez
Premier League · 2019
31€35.0M€7.5Mfell
Raúl Jiménez
Premier League · 2021
30€28.0M€6.0Mfell
Christian Benteke
Premier League · 2019
29€15.0M€9.0Mfell
Thorgan Hazard
Bundesliga · 2021
28€27.0M€7.0Mfell
Richarlison
Premier League · 2023
26€48.0M€20.0Mfell
Nolito
Premier League · 2017
31€12.0M€2.0Mfell
Chris Wood
Premier League · 2023
32€8.0M€10.0Mrose
Jordan Ayew
Premier League · 2019
28€8.0M€8.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Sept 2025BrentfordNewcastle€57.7M€32.0M
10 Aug 2021FC LorientBrentford€10.0M€10.0M
22 Jan 2018Angers SCOFC Lorient€2.0M€300k
21 Jan 2018AC AjaccioAngers SCOFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2017Angers SCOAC AjaccioFree / loan€300k
30 Jun 2017Stade LavalloisAngers SCOFree / loan€300k
23 Jan 2017Angers SCOStade LavalloisFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2016LB ChâteaurouxAngers SCOFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Châteauroux BLB ChâteaurouxUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Yoane Wissa · MoneyballAI