Nico Schlotterbeck
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nico Schlotterbeck's performance-implied value at EUR 20.7M-57.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 41.3M-69.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 23.9M-50.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €54.6M vs market €55.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2520 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €23.9M – €50.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -43% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2520 | 82% | 5 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 1492 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 1984 | 65% | 0 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 1468 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2861 | 93% | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 1508 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2256 | 74% | 4 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.18 | 1515 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2788 | 91% | 4 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1517 | 1543 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 16 | 1288 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1524 | 1508 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 13 | 372 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1456 | 1477 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1438 | 1564 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1423 | 1650 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 2 | 46 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1510 | 1413 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 560 | 0 | 0 | 1595 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Germany | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 2 | 1606 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 976 | 0 | 2 | 1721 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 241 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 559 | 0 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 220 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 6 | 630 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalidou Koulibaly Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €60.0M | €56.0M | flat |
| Theo Hernández Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €60.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Mats Hummels Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €38.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Nahuel Molina Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Marquinhos Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €70.0M | €50.0M | fell |
| Stefan de Vrij Serie A · 2020 | 28 | €48.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| José María Giménez Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Cristian Romero Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €60.0M | €45.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Freiburg | Dortmund | €20.0M | €33.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Union Berlin | Freiburg | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Freiburg | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | SC Freiburg II | Freiburg | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | SC Freiburg U19 | SC Freiburg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Karlsruhe U19 | SC Freiburg U19 | €90k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Karlsruhe U17 | Karlsruhe U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | VfR Aalen U17 | Karlsruhe U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | S. Kickers Yth. | VfR Aalen U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Weinstadt Yth. | S. Kickers Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.