José María Giménez

31 yrs · Centre-back · Uruguay
Atlético de Madrid · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€9.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.2M – €9.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.1M – €9.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.8M – €5.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€6.3M – €5.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.2M – €9.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.1M – €9.4M
Projected value (24 months)€2.8M – €5.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€9.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates José María Giménez's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-9.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-9.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-5.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 1

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh86.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €7.1M vs market €9.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-61% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €70.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1177 (34% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
86 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1619
Opponent strength
1491
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.8M – €5.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; relative output up 58% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -70% to -44%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1177 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Atlético de MadridLaligaCB16117734%010.080.06149116190.95
2024/25Atlético de MadridLaligaCB27199458%010.050.04150316550.95
2023/24Atlético de MadridLaligaCB22132339%000.000.02150616671.00
2022/23Atlético de MadridLaligaCB28242171%210.110.08150316560.98
2021/22Atlético de MadridLaligaCB24204660%110.090.06153116771.05
2020/21Atlético de MadridLaligaCB21176652%000.000.02152417281.10
2019/20Atlético de MadridLaligaCB21175351%000.000.02152117591.16
2018/19Atlético de MadridLaligaCB21177252%000.000.02155617361.14
2017/18Atlético de MadridLaligaCB23168449%110.110.05151717681.11
2016/17Atlético de MadridLaligaCB17101230%000.000.02148017921.11
2015/16Atlético de MadridLaligaCB27243071%110.070.05157618291.17
2013/14Atlético de MadridLaligaCB1903%000.000.04142818121.19

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid6284101684
2025/26Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid36000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid8750101660
2024/25Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid327000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid7482011673
2023/24Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid330000—
2023/24SupercopaAtlético de Madrid1120001810
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid5402001612
2022/23Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid322500—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid7585001713
2021/22SupercopaAtlético de Madrid190001553
2021/22Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid14500—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid4338101615
2020/21Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid11100—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid5299011663
2019/20SupercopaAtlético de Madrid198001766
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid5360201725
2018/19Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid218000—
2018/19Uefa Super CupAtlético de Madrid111001885
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueAtlético de Madrid7630001559
2017/18Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid433411—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid4272001658
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid6506001647
2016/17Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid647611—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid8661001663
2015/16Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid218000—
2013/14Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alex Telles
Laliga · 2023
31€7.5M€4.0Mfell
Stefan Radu
Serie A · 2016
30€6.0M€6.0Mflat
Chris Smalling
Serie A · 2021
32€12.0M€8.0Mfell
Aritz Elustondo
Laliga · 2023
29€14.0M€3.0Mfell
Alessandro Florenzi
Serie A · 2022
31€5.5M€2.0Mfell
Marcos Alonso
Laliga · 2023
33€5.0M€1.5Mfell
Aïssa Mandi
Laliga · 2022
31€6.0M€1.8Mfell
Ben Davies
Premier League · 2024
31€10.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
25 Apr 2013Danubio FCAtlético€995k€100k
1 Nov 2012Danubio U19Danubio FCUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.