
José María Giménez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates José María Giménez's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-9.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-9.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-5.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.1M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1177 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €5.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; relative output up 58% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -70% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1177 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 16 | 1177 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1491 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 27 | 1994 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1503 | 1655 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 22 | 1323 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1506 | 1667 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 28 | 2421 | 71% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1503 | 1656 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 24 | 2046 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1531 | 1677 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 21 | 1766 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1524 | 1728 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 21 | 1753 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1521 | 1759 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 21 | 1772 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1556 | 1736 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1684 | 49% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1517 | 1768 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 17 | 1012 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1480 | 1792 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 27 | 2430 | 71% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1576 | 1829 | 1.17 |
| 2013/14 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1428 | 1812 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 284 | 1 | 0 | 1684 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 750 | 1 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 482 | 0 | 1 | 1673 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1810 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 402 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 585 | 0 | 0 | 1713 |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 338 | 1 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 299 | 0 | 1 | 1663 |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 1766 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 360 | 2 | 0 | 1725 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Super Cup | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1885 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 334 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 272 | 0 | 0 | 1658 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 506 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 476 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 661 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Telles Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €7.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Stefan Radu Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Chris Smalling Serie A · 2021 | 32 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Aritz Elustondo Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €14.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Alessandro Florenzi Serie A · 2022 | 31 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Marcos Alonso Laliga · 2023 | 33 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Aïssa Mandi Laliga · 2022 | 31 | €6.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Ben Davies Premier League · 2024 | 31 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2013 | Danubio FC | Atlético | €995k | €100k |
| 1 Nov 2012 | Danubio U19 | Danubio FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.