Philipp Sander
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Philipp Sander's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-4.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.1M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2454 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; role change CM -> CB; relative output up 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -71% to +8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2454 | 80% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1492 | 1422 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CM | 27 | 1401 | 46% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1509 | 1427 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 173 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastien De Maio Serie A · 2015 | 28 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Papy Djilobodji Ligue 1 · 2018 | 30 | €5.5M | €1.7M | fell |
| Kévin Théophile-Catherine Ligue 1 · 2017 | 28 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Marcin Kamiński Bundesliga · 2019 | 27 | €3.5M | €800k | fell |
| Pablo Marí Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Frédéric Guilbert Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €4.0M | €800k | fell |
| Pedro Mendes Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €3.5M | €4.8M | rose |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €3.4M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Holstein Kiel | Mönchengladbach | €1.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | SC Verl | Holstein Kiel | Free / loan | €350k |
| 21 Aug 2020 | Holstein Kiel | SC Verl | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Holst. Kiel II | Holstein Kiel | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Holst. Kiel U19 | Holst. Kiel II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | H. Rostock U17 | Holst. Kiel U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | H. Rostock Yth. | H. Rostock U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.