Melih İbrahimoğlu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Melih İbrahimoğlu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (2286 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 90
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €946k vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2286 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1230
- Opponent strength
- 1278
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; role change AM -> CM; relative output up 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -32% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 29 | 2286 | 75% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1278 | 1230 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | AM | 29 | 1548 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1306 | 1228 | 0.39 |
| 2021/22 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CM | 2 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1594 | 1250 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CM | 2 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1261 | 1303 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KF Egnatia | 2 | 206 | 1 | 0 | 1254 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Rapid Vienna | 3 | 97 | 1 | 0 | 1412 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Deniz Türüç Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €3.1M | €2.7M | flat |
| Gabriel Florentín Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €2.3M | €500k | fell |
| Evert Linthorst Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Recep Niyaz Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Obinna Nwobodo Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.3M | €2.5M | rose |
| Kartal Yılmaz Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €2.7M | €2.5M | flat |
| Kristijan Bistrovic Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2024 | KF Egnatia | Konyaspor | €350k | €325k |
| 5 Jan 2024 | Heracles Almelo | KF Egnatia | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Admira Wacker | Heracles Almelo | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Heracles Almelo | Admira Wacker | Free / loan | €200k |
| 29 Jan 2021 | Rapid Vienna | Heracles Almelo | Unknown | €450k |
| 29 Sept 2019 | Rapid Wien II | Rapid Vienna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AKA Rapid U18 | Rapid Wien II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AKA Rapid U16 | AKA Rapid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AKA Rapid U15 | AKA Rapid U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Rapid Youth | AKA Rapid U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Sept 2012 | Vienna Yth. | Rapid Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 9 Feb 2009 | Slovan HAC Yth. | Vienna Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.