Nicolò Zaniolo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolò Zaniolo's performance-implied value at EUR 7.2M-19.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.4M-16.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-17.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (2321 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €14.3M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2321 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.62
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1444
- Opponent strength
- 1497
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.1M – €17.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 48 pts; changed club; team strength down (-186 Elo); role change ST -> SS; relative output up 74% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -50% to +42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | SS | 32 | 2271 | 66% | 5 | 6 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 1497 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | RW | 4 | 50 | 2% | 0 | 1 | 1.80 | 0.24 | 1217 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | ST | 14 | 343 | 10% | 2 | 2 | 1.05 | 0.40 | 1455 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | ST | 9 | 342 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1452 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Aston Villa | Premier League | AM | 25 | 830 | 24% | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 1608 | 1586 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | SS | 13 | 896 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.36 | 1499 | 1578 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | AM | 10 | 350 | 11% | 5 | 0 | 1.29 | 0.47 | 1360 | 1535 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RW | 28 | 1983 | 58% | 2 | 5 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 1479 | 1589 | 0.89 |
| 2019/20 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 26 | 1504 | 44% | 6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.29 | 1422 | 1582 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 27 | 1770 | 52% | 4 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.25 | 1464 | 1595 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 129 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 7 | 127 | 1 | 0 | 1605 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Atalanta BC | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1833 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 38 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1306 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 3 | 211 | 1 | 3 | 1492 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 169 | 1 | 0 | 1385 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 135 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 7 | 503 | 2 | 1 | 1516 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 7 | 384 | 2 | 0 | 1700 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 104 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Deulofeu Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €15.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Diego Perotti Serie A · 2015 | 27 | €10.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Jérémie Boga Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Nacer Chadli Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Iago Falque Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €10.0M | €17.5M | rose |
| Grégoire Defrel Serie A · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Naïm Sliti Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €7.0M | €5.8M | flat |
| Vincenzo Grifo Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €9.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Udinese | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Galatasaray | Udinese | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Fiorentina | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Galatasaray | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Atalanta | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 5 Jul 2024 | Galatasaray | Atalanta | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Aston Villa | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 18 Aug 2023 | Galatasaray | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €27.0M |
| 8 Feb 2023 | Roma | Galatasaray | €15.0M | €30.0M |
| 2 Jul 2018 | Inter | Roma | €6.8M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Inter U19 | Inter | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 5 Jul 2017 | Entella U19 | Inter U19 | €1.8M | €500k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Fiorentina U17 | Entella U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Fiorentina Yth. | Fiorentina U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Genoa CFC Youth | Fiorentina Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Canaletto | Genoa CFC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2008 | Spezia Youth | Canaletto | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Canaletto | Spezia Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.