Tobias Lawal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tobias Lawal's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1620 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1471
- Opponent strength
- 1365
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €902k – €3.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -40% to +217%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1620 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 18 | 1620 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1365 | 1471 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | 1425 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1420 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleksandr Bandura Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Andrey Lunev Premier Liga · 2017 | 26 | €3.5M | €10.5M | rose |
| Jean Butez Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €2.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Kristof Van Hout Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Colin Coosemans Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €1.5M | €850k | fell |
| Erwin Mulder Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Eloy Room Eredivisie · 2015 | 26 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Marco Bizot Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 26 | €1.2M | €4.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2025 | LASK | Genk | €3.2M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Juniors OÖ | LASK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2017 | FC Wels | LASK Juniors OÖ | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Sept 2017 | LASK Juniors OÖ | FC Wels | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FAL U18 | LASK Juniors OÖ | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FAL U16 | FAL U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FAL U15 | FAL U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Pasching You | FAL U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Donau Linz J. | FC Pasching You | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.