Felix Bacher
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Felix Bacher's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.8M-8.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-9.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1331
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €9.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts; relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -23% to +127%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1331 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 23 | 2070 | 68% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1342 | 1302 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Moura Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €6.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Ko Itakura Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €3.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Pedro Henrique Liga Portugal · 2019 | 27 | €5.0M | €1.7M | fell |
| Samuel Gigot Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 24 | €3.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Ridgeciano Haps Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €4.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Josué Sá Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
| João Aurélio Liga Portugal · 2015 | 27 | €2.6M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2024 | WSG Tirol | Estoril | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | SC Freiburg II | WSG Tirol | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | FC Wacker | SC Freiburg II | €150k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Wacker II | FC Wacker | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AKA Tirol U18 | FC Wacker II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AKA Tirol U16 | AKA Tirol U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AKA Tirol U15 | AKA Tirol U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | W. Innsbruck J. | AKA Tirol U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Apr 2011 | Schwaz Jgd. | W. Innsbruck J. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.