Alessandro Zanoli

26 yrs · Right-back (also RM) · Italy
SSC Napoli · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€4.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.1M – €5.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.4M – €7.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.9M – €5.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.6M – €5.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.1M – €5.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.4M – €7.2M
Projected value (24 months)€1.9M – €5.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Alessandro Zanoli's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-7.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-5.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.40x the positional average in the league (1292 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 36

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average56th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.7 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €3.8M vs market €4.5M
Expected appreciationLow-24% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1292 (38% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.21
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.31
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
56 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1442
Opponent strength
1487
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.9M – €5.9M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output up 73% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -53% to -6%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1292 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Udinese CalcioSerie ARM19129238%120.210.31148714420.93
2024/25Genoa CFCSerie ARM31171750%110.100.18151214440.99
2023/24US Salernitana 1919Serie ARM1792027%020.200.34149512550.98
2023/24SSC NapoliSerie ARB4491%000.000.10150815690.98
2022/23UC SampdoriaSerie ARM22153945%220.230.36148712710.94
2022/23SSC NapoliSerie ARB1110%000.000.06146117390.94
2021/22SSC NapoliSerie ARB1245213%000.000.07149116450.89

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupUdinese Calcio19001—
2024/25Italy CupGenoa CFC26500—
2023/24Italy CupSSC Napoli19000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli13001793
2022/23Italy CupUC Sampdoria16400—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli210001662
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueSSC Napoli17001482

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sanjin Prcic
Ligue 1 · 2019
26€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Paolo Ghiglione
Serie A · 2021
24€3.4M€1.3Mfell
Vincent Pajot
Ligue 1 · 2017
27€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Alexandru Maxim
Bundesliga · 2016
26€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Valerio Verre
Serie A · 2021
27€3.5M€1.8Mfell
Kristijan Jakic
Bundesliga · 2024
27€6.5M€6.0Mflat
Florian Neuhaus
Bundesliga · 2024
27€7.0M€2.5Mfell
Iván Martín
Laliga · 2023
24€3.0M€6.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026UdineseNapoliFree / loan€4.5M
1 Sept 2025NapoliUdineseFree / loan€6.0M
30 Jun 2025GenoaNapoliFree / loan€6.0M
11 Jul 2024NapoliGenoaFree / loan€5.0M
30 Jun 2024SalernitanaNapoliFree / loan€5.0M
17 Jan 2024NapoliSalernitanaFree / loan€6.0M
30 Jun 2023SampdoriaNapoliFree / loan€6.0M
7 Jan 2023NapoliSampdoriaFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2021LegnagoNapoliFree / loan€200k
22 Sept 2020NapoliLegnagoFree / loan€200k
1 Sept 2020Napoli U19NapoliUnknown€200k
1 Jul 2019CarpiNapoli U19€1.5M€75k
30 Jun 2019Napoli U19CarpiFree / loan€75k
30 Jan 2018Carpi U19Napoli U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Carpi U17Carpi U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Carpi FC YouthCarpi U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Don MonariCarpi FC YouthUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.