
Alessandro Zanoli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alessandro Zanoli's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-7.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-5.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.40x the positional average in the league (1292 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.8M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1292 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €5.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output up 73% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -53% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1292 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | RM | 19 | 1292 | 38% | 1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.31 | 1487 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | RM | 31 | 1717 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 1512 | 1444 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | US Salernitana 1919 | Serie A | RM | 17 | 920 | 27% | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.34 | 1495 | 1255 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RB | 4 | 49 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1508 | 1569 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | RM | 22 | 1539 | 45% | 2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.36 | 1487 | 1271 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RB | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1461 | 1739 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RB | 12 | 452 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1491 | 1645 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 2 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1793 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1482 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanjin Prcic Ligue 1 · 2019 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Paolo Ghiglione Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €3.4M | €1.3M | fell |
| Vincent Pajot Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Alexandru Maxim Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Valerio Verre Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Kristijan Jakic Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Florian Neuhaus Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Iván Martín Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Udinese | Napoli | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Napoli | Udinese | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Genoa | Napoli | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 11 Jul 2024 | Napoli | Genoa | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Salernitana | Napoli | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 17 Jan 2024 | Napoli | Salernitana | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Sampdoria | Napoli | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 7 Jan 2023 | Napoli | Sampdoria | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Legnago | Napoli | Free / loan | €200k |
| 22 Sept 2020 | Napoli | Legnago | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Napoli U19 | Napoli | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Carpi | Napoli U19 | €1.5M | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Napoli U19 | Carpi | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jan 2018 | Carpi U19 | Napoli U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Carpi U17 | Carpi U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Carpi FC Youth | Carpi U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Don Monari | Carpi FC Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.