Daniil Fomin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daniil Fomin's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-6.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-7.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-5.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (2279 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.0M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2279 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1324
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €5.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 65% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -53% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 27 | 2279 | 84% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1324 | 1423 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 2046 | 76% | 5 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.26 | 1292 | 1445 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CM | 25 | 1783 | 66% | 1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 1333 | 1374 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CM | 28 | 2442 | 90% | 5 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 1316 | 1325 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CM | 29 | 2464 | 91% | 10 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 1346 | 1374 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 29 | 2358 | 87% | 6 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 1348 | 1391 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | DM | 27 | 2430 | 90% | 6 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 1401 | 1333 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 11 | 685 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 8 | 495 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 8 | 586 | 2 | 4 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 9 | 683 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 6 | 468 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Dinamo Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1373 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Zobnin Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €13.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Dmitriy Barinov Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €8.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Adam Maher Eredivisie · 2022 | 29 | €3.8M | €3.0M | fell |
| Mahmut Tekdemir Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €4.3M | €2.0M | fell |
| Milan Gajic Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Ricardo Esgaio Liga Portugal · 2021 | 28 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Fredrik Midtsjø Eredivisie · 2022 | 29 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Jens Toornstra Eredivisie · 2019 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2020 | Ufa | Dynamo Moscow | €3.5M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Krasnodar 2 | Ufa | €960k | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Nizhny Novgorod | Krasnodar 2 | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Krasnodar 2 | Olimpiets | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Krasnodar II | Krasnodar 2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Krasnodar U17 | Krasnodar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.