
Andriy Lunin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andriy Lunin's performance-implied value at EUR 5.0M-13.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.5M-16.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-14.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 80.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.4M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 540 (16% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.3M – €14.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -63% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 540 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 6 | 540 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1469 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 7 | 630 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 1522 | 1764 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 21 | 1890 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1482 | 1867 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 7 | 630 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1460 | 1737 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1551 | 1812 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | CD Leganés | Laliga | GK | 5 | 364 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1566 | 1481 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | GK | 19 | 1710 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1339 | 1423 | 0.62 |
| 2016/17 | Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (-2020) | Premier Liga | GK | 22 | 1980 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1307 | 1342 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | 1770 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 5 | 510 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 8 | 750 | 0 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1700 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | CD Leganés | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Zorya Lugansk | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1507 |
| 2017/18 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Ukrainian Cup | Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (-2020) | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierluigi Gollini Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Iñaki Peña Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Anders Lindegaard Premier League · 2013 | 29 | €6.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Neto Serie A · 2017 | 28 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Sergio Rico Ligue 1 · 2021 | 28 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Caoimhín Kelleher Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Alphonse Areola Laliga · 2020 | 27 | €13.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Arnau Tenas Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2020 | Real Oviedo | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 15 Jan 2020 | Real Madrid | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 14 Jan 2020 | Real Valladolid | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 13 Aug 2019 | Real Madrid | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | CD Leganés | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 27 Aug 2018 | Real Madrid | CD Leganés | Free / loan | €8.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Zorya Lugansk | Real Madrid | €8.5M | €3.5M |
| 6 Jul 2017 | Dnipro | Zorya Lugansk | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Oct 2016 | Dnipro U19 | Dnipro | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Nov 2015 | Dnipro U17 | Dnipro U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Mar 2015 | Metalist U17 | Dnipro U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.