Andriy Lunin

27 yrs · Goalkeeper · Ukraine
Real Madrid · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€12.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€6.5M – €16.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€5.0M – €13.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.3M – €14.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€11.5M – €7.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€6.5M – €16.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€5.0M – €13.7M
Projected value (24 months)€4.3M – €14.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€12.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Andriy Lunin's performance-implied value at EUR 5.0M-13.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.5M-16.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-14.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceHigh80.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €10.4M vs market €12.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-45% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €25.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
540 (16% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
81 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1745
Opponent strength
1469
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.3M – €14.5M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -63% to -8%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 540 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real MadridLaligaGK654016%000.000.00146917450.95
2024/25Real MadridLaligaGK763018%010.140.07152217640.95
2023/24Real MadridLaligaGK21189055%000.000.00148218671.00
2022/23Real MadridLaligaGK763018%000.000.00146017370.98
2021/22Real MadridLaligaGK21805%000.000.00155118121.05
2018/19CD LeganésLaligaGK536411%000.000.00156614811.14
2017/18Zorya LuganskPremier LigaGK19171086%000.000.00133914230.62
2016/17Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (-2020)Premier LigaGK22198069%000.000.00130713420.56

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid4315001770
2025/26Copa Del ReyReal Madrid218000—
2024/25Copa Del ReyReal Madrid551000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid2180001580
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid8750001749
2023/24Copa Del ReyReal Madrid112000—
2023/24SupercopaReal Madrid190001700
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid2180001586
2022/23Copa Del ReyReal Madrid19000—
2021/22Copa Del ReyReal Madrid221000—
2020/21Copa Del ReyReal Madrid112000—
2019/20Copa Del ReyReal Valladolid CF221000—
2018/19Copa Del ReyCD Leganés218000—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueZorya Lugansk6540001507
2017/18Ukrainian CupZorya Lugansk112000—
2016/17Ukrainian CupDnipro Dnipropetrovsk (-2020)330000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Pierluigi Gollini
Serie A · 2023
28€4.5M€1.0Mfell
Iñaki Peña
Laliga · 2024
25€8.0M€4.0Mfell
Anders Lindegaard
Premier League · 2013
29€6.5M€1.5Mfell
Neto
Serie A · 2017
28€6.0M€18.0Mrose
Sergio Rico
Ligue 1 · 2021
28€7.0M€3.0Mfell
Caoimhín Kelleher
Premier League · 2024
26€20.0M€28.0Mrose
Alphonse Areola
Laliga · 2020
27€13.0M€8.0Mfell
Arnau Tenas
Ligue 1 · 2024
23€5.0M€4.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
21 Jul 2020Real OviedoReal MadridFree / loan€2.7M
15 Jan 2020Real MadridReal OviedoFree / loan€3.0M
14 Jan 2020Real ValladolidReal MadridFree / loan€3.0M
13 Aug 2019Real MadridReal ValladolidFree / loan€7.5M
30 Jun 2019CD LeganésReal MadridFree / loan€7.5M
27 Aug 2018Real MadridCD LeganésFree / loan€8.5M
1 Jul 2018Zorya LuganskReal Madrid€8.5M€3.5M
6 Jul 2017DniproZorya LuganskUnknown€700k
1 Oct 2016Dnipro U19DniproUnknownData unavailable
1 Nov 2015Dnipro U17Dnipro U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Mar 2015Metalist U17Dnipro U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.