Yukinari Sugawara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yukinari Sugawara's performance-implied value at EUR 6.1M-17.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-6.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.9M vs market €5.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2434 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1378
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €6.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; changed club; team strength up (+102 Elo); league level down (-105 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -62% to +28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | RB | 31 | 2434 | 80% | 0 | 6 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 1476 | 1378 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Southampton FC | Premier League | RB | 30 | 1557 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 1571 | 1277 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RB | 30 | 2564 | 84% | 4 | 7 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 1338 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RB | 31 | 2398 | 78% | 3 | 8 | 0.41 | 0.22 | 1360 | 1530 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RB | 33 | 2635 | 86% | 1 | 4 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1330 | 1496 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RB | 25 | 1644 | 54% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1385 | 1557 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 16 | 640 | 28% | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.26 | 1341 | 1542 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Japan | 3 | 121 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 390 | 0 | 1 | 1276 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1370 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 315 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1558 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1521 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 312 | 1 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 1390 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyriakos Papadopoulos Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €5.0M | €600k | fell |
| Gabriel Suazo Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €3.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Domingos Duarte Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €5.0M | €800k | fell |
| Johan Vásquez Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €10.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Silvan Widmer Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €9.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Pedro Mendes Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €3.5M | €4.8M | rose |
| Vasco Regini Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Werder Bremen | Southampton | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 26 Aug 2025 | Southampton | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 14 Jul 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | Southampton | €7.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Nagoya Grampus | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | AZ Alkmaar | Nagoya Grampus | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Nagoya Grampus | AZ Alkmaar | Free / loan | €250k |
| 6 Apr 2018 | Grampus U18 | Nagoya Grampus | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2016 | Grampus Jg | Grampus U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.