Takefusa Kubo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Takefusa Kubo's performance-implied value at EUR 5.7M-17.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.4M-23.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.3M-23.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1509 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €17.7M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1509 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1462
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.3M – €23.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; relative output up 70% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -72% to -12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1509 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | RW | 24 | 1509 | 44% | 2 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 1475 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | RW | 36 | 2381 | 70% | 5 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.26 | 1513 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | RW | 30 | 2156 | 63% | 7 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 1492 | 1588 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | RW | 35 | 2454 | 72% | 9 | 7 | 0.59 | 0.48 | 1505 | 1604 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RW | 28 | 1608 | 47% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.33 | 1529 | 1378 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Getafe CF | Laliga | RW | 18 | 802 | 23% | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 1544 | 1471 | 1.10 |
| 2020/21 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RW | 13 | 292 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1497 | 1676 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RW | 35 | 2308 | 67% | 4 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.53 | 1571 | 1415 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 237 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Japan | 1 | 75 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 11 | 699 | 2 | 2 | 1528 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 410 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 563 | 0 | 1 | 1728 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 216 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 7 | 364 | 0 | 2 | 1532 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 3 | 161 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 5 | 375 | 1 | 3 | 1391 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasa Kalajdzic Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €25.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Krzysztof Piatek Bundesliga · 2021 | 26 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Davie Selke Bundesliga · 2019 | 24 | €18.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Xherdan Shaqiri Premier League · 2017 | 26 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Víctor Ibarbo Serie A · 2015 | 25 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Kasper Dolberg Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €17.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| André Silva Bundesliga · 2020 | 25 | €16.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Luca Waldschmidt Bundesliga · 2020 | 24 | €16.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2022 | Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | €6.5M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | RCD Mallorca | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 11 Aug 2021 | Real Madrid | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Getafe | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 8 Jan 2021 | Real Madrid | Getafe | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 7 Jan 2021 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 10 Aug 2020 | Real Madrid | Villarreal | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 20 Jul 2020 | RCD Mallorca | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €13.5M |
| 22 Aug 2019 | Real Madrid | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Tokyo | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Yokohama F. M. | FC Tokyo | Free / loan | €500k |
| 15 Aug 2018 | FC Tokyo | Yokohama F. M. | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Nov 2017 | FC Tokyo U18 | FC Tokyo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2015 | Barça Youth | FC Tokyo U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Frontale Jgd. | Barça Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.