
Tom Krauß
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tom Krauß's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-5.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-6.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (1787 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.1M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1787 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €5.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club; relative output up 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +55% (IQR -12% to +86%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1787 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | DM | 26 | 1787 | 58% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1500 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | DM | 14 | 1081 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1523 | 1326 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 29 | 1342 | 44% | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 1502 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CM | 32 | 2528 | 83% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 1537 | 1354 | 1.04 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | DM | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1428 | 1700 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Osterhage Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Roberto Soriano Serie A · 2014 | 23 | €3.5M | €12.5M | rose |
| Rubén Vargas Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| João Pedro Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Matheus Henrique Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Rémi Oudin Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Ibrahima Sissoko Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Mainz | 1.FC Köln | €3.5M | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | 1.FC Köln | Mainz | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 5 Jul 2025 | Mainz | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | VfL Bochum | Mainz | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jan 2025 | Mainz | VfL Bochum | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 29 Jan 2025 | Luton | Mainz | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 22 Aug 2024 | Mainz | Luton | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Leipzig | Mainz | €5.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Schalke 04 | Leipzig | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Leipzig | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Leipzig | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Leipzig | 1.FC Nuremberg | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | RB Leipzig U19 | Leipzig | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | RB Leipzig U17 | RB Leipzig U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | RB Leipzig Yth. | RB Leipzig U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | S. Leipzig Yth. | RB Leipzig Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.