Tom Krauß

25 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Germany
1.FC Köln · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 182 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€4.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.1M – €6.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.1M – €5.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.0M – €5.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4.0M – €3.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.1M – €6.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.1M – €5.7M
Projected value (24 months)€2.0M – €5.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Tom Krauß's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-5.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-6.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (1787 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 32

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage52.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €4.1M vs market €4.5M
Expected appreciationLow-22% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1787 (58% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
53 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1347
Opponent strength
1500
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.0M – €5.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club; relative output up 54% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +55% (IQR -12% to +86%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1787 league minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/261.FC KölnBundesligaDM26178758%020.100.13150013470.94
2024/25VfL BochumBundesligaDM14108135%000.000.09152313260.94
2023/241.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaCM29134244%120.200.22150214891.01
2022/23FC Schalke 04BundesligaCM32252883%200.070.16153713541.04
2019/20RB LeipzigBundesligaDM130%000.000.07142817001.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb Pokal1.FC Köln17500—
2023/24Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05210000—
2022/23Dfb PokalFC Schalke 0419000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Patrick Osterhage
Bundesliga · 2024
24€7.0M€12.0Mrose
Roberto Soriano
Serie A · 2014
23€3.5M€12.5Mrose
Rubén Vargas
Bundesliga · 2024
26€7.5M€12.0Mrose
João Pedro
Serie A · 2018
26€5.0M€12.0Mrose
Kristian Thorstvedt
Serie A · 2024
25€8.0M€12.0Mrose
Matheus Henrique
Serie A · 2023
26€10.0M€6.0Mfell
Rémi Oudin
Serie A · 2024
28€3.5M€3.5Mflat
Ibrahima Sissoko
Ligue 1 · 2024
27€6.0M€2.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Mainz1.FC Köln€3.5M€4.5M
30 Jun 20261.FC KölnMainzFree / loan€4.5M
5 Jul 2025Mainz1.FC KölnFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2025VfL BochumMainzFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jan 2025MainzVfL BochumFree / loan€4.0M
29 Jan 2025LutonMainzFree / loan€4.0M
22 Aug 2024MainzLutonFree / loan€4.0M
14 Jul 2023LeipzigMainz€5.0M€7.0M
30 Jun 2023FC Schalke 04LeipzigFree / loan€7.0M
1 Jul 2022LeipzigFC Schalke 04Free / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 20221.FC NurembergLeipzigFree / loan€4.0M
4 Aug 2020Leipzig1.FC NurembergFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2019RB Leipzig U19LeipzigUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018RB Leipzig U17RB Leipzig U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016RB Leipzig Yth.RB Leipzig U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011S. Leipzig Yth.RB Leipzig Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.