Keven Schlotterbeck

29 yrs · Centre-back · Germany
FC Augsburg · Bundesliga · Foot: left · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.1M – €5.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.0M – €7.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.9M – €4.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.1M – €5.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.1M – €5.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.0M – €7.1M
Projected value (24 months)€1.9M – €4.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Keven Schlotterbeck's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-7.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-4.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 48

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average68.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €2.7M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2031 (66% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
68 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1421
Opponent strength
1505
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.9M – €4.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; relative output down 67% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -74% to -29%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC AugsburgBundesligaCB24203166%020.090.08150514210.94
2024/25FC AugsburgBundesligaCB18129842%310.280.23151914040.94
2023/24VfL BochumBundesligaCB27218471%530.330.27150013721.01
2022/23VfL BochumBundesligaCB1373024%200.250.15148614091.04
2022/23SC FreiburgBundesligaCB2120%000.000.06157515611.04
2021/22SC FreiburgBundesligaCB1231110%000.000.04149415431.05
2020/21SC FreiburgBundesligaCB24164854%000.000.02151414921.06
2019/201.FC Union BerlinBundesligaCB23194363%000.000.02153114341.06
2018/19SC FreiburgBundesligaCB977225%010.120.11154514131.05

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb PokalFC Augsburg29300—
2024/25Dfb PokalFC Augsburg435800—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg293001496
2022/23Dfb PokalSC Freiburg14600—
2021/22Dfb PokalSC Freiburg213410—
2020/21Dfb PokalSC Freiburg19000—
2019/20Dfb Pokal1.FC Union Berlin436010—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Gabriel Paletta
Serie A · 2016
30€5.0M€1.5Mfell
Pape Diakhaté
Super Lig · 2014
30€3.0M€500kfell
Domingos Duarte
Laliga · 2023
28€5.0M€800kfell
Pablo Marí
Serie A · 2023
30€5.0M€3.5Mfell
Kiki Kouyaté
Ligue 1 · 2024
27€5.0M€1.5Mfell
Abdoulaye Bamba
Ligue 1 · 2019
29€3.0M€1.2Mfell
Ricardo Rodríguez
Serie A · 2022
30€3.4M€3.5Mflat
Boukary Dramé
Serie A · 2014
29€3.0M€2.2Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024FreiburgAugsburg€2.5M€6.0M
30 Jun 2024VfL BochumFreiburgFree / loan€6.0M
22 Aug 2023FreiburgVfL BochumFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jun 2023VfL BochumFreiburgFree / loan€3.0M
2 Jan 2023FreiburgVfL BochumFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jun 2020Union BerlinFreiburgFree / loan€2.8M
1 Jul 2019FreiburgUnion BerlinFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2018SC Freiburg IIFreiburgUnknown€75k
1 Jul 2017TSG BacknangSC Freiburg IIFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Kirchheim U19TSG BacknangFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Backnang U17Kirchheim U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012S. Kickers Yth.Backnang U17Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.