Jurriën Timber
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jurriën Timber's performance-implied value at EUR 60.7M-82.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 40.7M-99.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 36.9M-69.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €71.5M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2457 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1583
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €36.9M – €69.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+62 Elo); relative output up 95% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -24% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RB | 30 | 2457 | 72% | 3 | 6 | 0.33 | 0.18 | 1583 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RB | 30 | 2423 | 71% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 1570 | 1813 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LB | 2 | 71 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1466 | 1794 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 34 | 3034 | 99% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 1333 | 1593 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 30 | 2554 | 83% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 1334 | 1749 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 20 | 1509 | 49% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 1374 | 1722 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 1 | 82 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1326 | 1680 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 7 | 513 | 1 | 1 | 1661 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 49 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 13 | 854 | 1 | 1 | 1723 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1920 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 530 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2022/23 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 8 | 571 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1607 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 299 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rúben Dias Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €75.0M | €80.0M | flat |
| Sergi Roberto Laliga · 2018 | 26 | €55.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Jordi Alba Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €35.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Aymeric Laporte Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €75.0M | €45.0M | fell |
| Ben Chilwell Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Sergio Ramos Laliga · 2014 | 28 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €65.0M | €75.0M | flat |
| Dayot Upamecano Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €40.0M | €45.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2023 | Ajax | Arsenal | €40.0M | €42.0M |
| 18 Sept 2020 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Feyenoord Youth | Ajax Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.