Martín Zubimendi

27 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Spain
Arsenal FC · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 181 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€75.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€51.3M – €95.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€39.5M – €75.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€40.2M – €74.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€55.9M – €23.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€51.3M – €95.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€39.5M – €75.0M
Projected value (24 months)€40.2M – €74.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€75.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Martín Zubimendi's performance-implied value at EUR 39.5M-75.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 51.3M-95.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 40.2M-74.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (3002 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 8

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite96.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €74.9M vs market €75.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €80.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
3002 (88% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.18
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
97 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1876
Opponent strength
1592
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€40.2M – €74.4M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+412 Elo); league level up (+125 Elo); relative output down 41% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -47% to +25%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Arsenal FCPremier LeagueDM38300288%510.180.08159218761.30
2024/25Real SociedadLaligaDM36296287%220.120.13149614640.95
2023/24Real SociedadLaligaDM31265578%410.170.12147315881.00
2022/23Real SociedadLaligaDM36310291%130.120.11151516040.98
2021/22Real SociedadLaligaDM36258476%210.100.12154115591.05
2020/21Real SociedadLaligaDM31187655%000.000.05159115731.10
2019/20Real SociedadLaligaCM957117%000.000.15157715671.16
2018/19Real SociedadLaligaCM160%000.000.27159315361.14

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueArsenal FC12967021656
2025/26Fa CupArsenal FC33000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueReal Sociedad8603001546
2024/25Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad439000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueReal Sociedad8713001715
2023/24Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad636700—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueReal Sociedad4360001621
2022/23Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad428501—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueReal Sociedad7554111540
2021/22Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad419200—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueReal Sociedad6385001594
2020/21Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad214600—
2020/21SupercopaReal Sociedad115001781
2019/20Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sergio Busquets
Laliga · 2016
28€60.0M€80.0Mrose
Rodri
Premier League · 2023
27€90.0M€110Mrose
N'Golo Kanté
Premier League · 2019
28€100M€55.0Mfell
Saúl Ñíguez
Laliga · 2020
26€72.0M€25.0Mfell
Martin Ødegaard
Premier League · 2024
26€110M€65.0Mfell
Bernardo Silva
Premier League · 2023
29€80.0M€38.0Mfell
Jorginho
Premier League · 2019
28€65.0M€40.0Mfell
Toni Kroos
Laliga · 2015
25€50.0M€70.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
6 Jul 2025Real SociedadArsenal€70.0M€60.0M
10 Sept 2020Real Sociedad BReal SociedadUnknown€250k
1 Jul 2018Real Sociedad CReal Sociedad BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017R. Sociedad U19Real Sociedad CUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Real Sociedad YR. Sociedad U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Antiguoko YthReal Sociedad YFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.