
Martín Zubimendi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martín Zubimendi's performance-implied value at EUR 39.5M-75.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 51.3M-95.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 40.2M-74.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (3002 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €74.9M vs market €75.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3002 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1592
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €40.2M – €74.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+412 Elo); league level up (+125 Elo); relative output down 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -47% to +25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | DM | 38 | 3002 | 88% | 5 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 1592 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | DM | 36 | 2962 | 87% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1496 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | DM | 31 | 2655 | 78% | 4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1473 | 1588 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | DM | 36 | 3102 | 91% | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1515 | 1604 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | DM | 36 | 2584 | 76% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1541 | 1559 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | DM | 31 | 1876 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1591 | 1573 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CM | 9 | 571 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1577 | 1567 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CM | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1593 | 1536 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 12 | 967 | 0 | 2 | 1656 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 603 | 0 | 0 | 1546 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 713 | 0 | 0 | 1715 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 6 | 367 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 285 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 7 | 554 | 1 | 1 | 1540 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 192 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 385 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 146 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Real Sociedad | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1781 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Busquets Laliga · 2016 | 28 | €60.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Rodri Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €90.0M | €110M | rose |
| N'Golo Kanté Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €100M | €55.0M | fell |
| Saúl Ñíguez Laliga · 2020 | 26 | €72.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Martin Ødegaard Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €110M | €65.0M | fell |
| Bernardo Silva Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €80.0M | €38.0M | fell |
| Jorginho Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €65.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Toni Kroos Laliga · 2015 | 25 | €50.0M | €70.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2025 | Real Sociedad | Arsenal | €70.0M | €60.0M |
| 10 Sept 2020 | Real Sociedad B | Real Sociedad | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Real Sociedad C | Real Sociedad B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | R. Sociedad U19 | Real Sociedad C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Real Sociedad Y | R. Sociedad U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Antiguoko Yth | Real Sociedad Y | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.