Guglielmo Vicario
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Guglielmo Vicario's performance-implied value at EUR 12.2M-22.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.5M-25.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.3M-13.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.8M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2790 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1564
- Opponent strength
- 1602
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.3M – €13.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -62% to -1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | GK | 31 | 2790 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1602 | 1564 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | GK | 24 | 2160 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1567 | 1564 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1580 | 1588 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | FC Empoli | Serie A | GK | 31 | 2784 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1475 | 1388 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | FC Empoli | Serie A | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1480 | 1331 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | GK | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1514 | 1373 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 883 | 0 | 0 | 1591 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1830 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Asenjo Laliga · 2019 | 30 | €12.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Marko Dmitrovic Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €9.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| David Raya Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| David de Gea Premier League · 2022 | 32 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Tomáš Vaclík Laliga · 2019 | 30 | €18.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Kasper Schmeichel Premier League · 2018 | 32 | €10.0M | €9.5M | flat |
| Gerónimo Rulli Laliga · 2019 | 27 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Jordan Pickford Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | FC Empoli | Tottenham | €18.5M | €16.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Cagliari | FC Empoli | €8.5M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Empoli | Cagliari | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 9 Jul 2021 | Cagliari | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Perugia | Cagliari | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 25 Jul 2019 | Cagliari | Perugia | Free / loan | €800k |
| 17 Jul 2019 | Venezia | Cagliari | €2.0M | €800k |
| 5 Jul 2016 | Udinese | Venezia | €500 | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Venezia | Udinese | Free / loan | €75k |
| 7 Aug 2015 | Udinese U19 | Venezia | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Fontanafredda | Udinese U19 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 2 Aug 2014 | Udinese U19 | Fontanafredda | Free / loan | €50k |
| 19 Aug 2013 | Unknown | Udinese U19 | €44k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.