Joshua Kitolano
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joshua Kitolano's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.36x the positional average in the league (2633 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2633 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1317
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; team strength down (-87 Elo); relative output up 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -41% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 32 | 2633 | 86% | 5 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 1317 | 1213 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 27 | 1584 | 52% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1289 | 1300 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 24 | 2112 | 69% | 5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 1352 | 1327 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 34 | 2650 | 87% | 4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 1358 | 1394 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 41 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Hadziahmetovic Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €2.2M | €7.5M | rose |
| Fernando Costanza Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Bernard Mensah Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €2.4M | €2.3M | flat |
| Yassin Oukili Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €1.7M | €700k | fell |
| Andreas Tatos Super League 1 · 2014 | 25 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Mathieu Maertens Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Mustafa Saymak Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €2.5M | €725k | fell |
| Robin Yalçın Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Sparta R. | Bodø/Glimt | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Odd | Sparta R. | €610k | €800k |
| 3 Nov 2017 | Odd II | Odd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Gulset | Odd II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.