Ivan Brnic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivan Brnic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (929 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 929 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.68
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1357
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €986k – €3.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+71 Elo); relative output up 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -41% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 929 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | LW | 28 | 929 | 30% | 4 | 3 | 0.68 | 0.53 | 1268 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | LW | 11 | 532 | 16% | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.42 | 1272 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | LW | 4 | 76 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1172 | 1490 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 5 | 325 | 1 | 0 | 1346 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | NK Celje | 3 | 140 | 0 | 0 | 1268 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | NK Celje | 2 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 1261 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | NK Maribor | 6 | 549 | 2 | 1 | 1383 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patryk Szysz Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Yusuf Sarı Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €1.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Cherif Ndiaye Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €2.2M | €5.0M | rose |
| Besart Abdurahimi Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 25 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Ebrima Colley Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Roman Tugarev Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Ibrahim Sadiq Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Güven Yalçın Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.7M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2025 | Olympiacos | Basaksehir | €1.2M | €1.0M |
| 9 Feb 2025 | NK Celje | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Jul 2024 | Olympiacos | NK Celje | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 18 Aug 2023 | NK Maribor | Olympiacos | €1.3M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | NK Dugopolje | NK Maribor | Unknown | €850k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Hajduk Split | NK Dugopolje | Free / loan | €300k |
| 24 Apr 2020 | Hajduk Split II | Hajduk Split | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hajduk U17 | Hajduk Split II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hajduk Yth. | Hajduk U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 22 Aug 2011 | Zmaj Makarska | Hajduk Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.