Folarin Balogun
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Folarin Balogun's performance-implied value at EUR 9.5M-27.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.4M-53.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.4M-49.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (2247 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €43.1M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2247 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.72
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1481
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.4M – €49.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 53 pts; relative output up 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -46% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 30 | 2247 | 73% | 13 | 5 | 0.72 | 0.56 | 1481 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 13 | 613 | 20% | 4 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.37 | 1411 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 29 | 1695 | 55% | 7 | 6 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 1492 | 1573 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | ST | 37 | 3012 | 88% | 21 | 3 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 1448 | 1425 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 10 | 813 | 5 | 0 | 1653 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | United States | 2 | 162 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 3 | 93 | 0 | 1 | 1629 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 5 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 1378 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico González Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Edon Zhegrova Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Luis Alberto Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €35.0M | €44.0M | rose |
| Christian Pulisic Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Moussa Dembélé Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Marcus Thuram Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €32.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Cengiz Ünder Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €22.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Joshua Zirkzee Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €50.0M | €20.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2023 | Arsenal | Monaco | €30.0M | €30.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Stade Reims | Arsenal | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 3 Aug 2022 | Arsenal | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Arsenal U21 | Arsenal | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 31 May 2022 | Middlesbrough | Arsenal U23 | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 12 Jan 2022 | Arsenal U23 | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Arsenal Youth | Arsenal U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.