Cucho Hernández
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cucho Hernández's performance-implied value at EUR 12.5M-29.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.1M-22.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.5M-19.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (2595 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.6M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2595 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1468
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.5M – €19.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -57% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | ST | 32 | 2595 | 76% | 11 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 1468 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | ST | 15 | 1150 | 34% | 5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 1512 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2021/22 | Watford FC | Premier League | RW | 25 | 1141 | 33% | 5 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.69 | 1606 | 1329 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Getafe CF | Laliga | ST | 23 | 1474 | 43% | 2 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.42 | 1575 | 1471 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | ST | 22 | 1492 | 44% | 5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.64 | 1550 | 1415 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | SD Huesca | Laliga | ST | 34 | 2152 | 63% | 4 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.53 | 1566 | 1410 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 7 | 448 | 3 | 0 | 1474 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 87 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Colombia | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 2 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Younès Belhanda Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €9.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Ricardo Álvarez Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €16.5M | €7.5M | fell |
| Ihlas Bebou Bundesliga · 2020 | 26 | €8.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €22.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Mikel Oyarzabal Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €45.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Moi Gómez Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ritsu Doan Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €18.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Federico Chiesa Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €35.0M | €13.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | Columbus | Real Betis | €13.0M | €18.0M |
| 7 Jul 2022 | Watford | Columbus | €9.6M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Getafe | Watford | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 14 Aug 2020 | Watford | Getafe | Free / loan | €6.7M |
| 20 Jul 2020 | RCD Mallorca | Watford | Free / loan | €6.7M |
| 26 Aug 2019 | Watford | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | SD Huesca | Watford | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 8 Jul 2017 | Watford | SD Huesca | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | CD América | Watford | Free / loan | €450k |
| 2 Jan 2017 | Watford | CD América | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Pereira | Watford | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Pereira U20 | Pereira | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.