Marc Leonard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marc Leonard's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.33x the positional average in the league (900 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.8M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 900 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1332
- Opponent strength
- 1192
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €4.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -46% to +71%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 900 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 10 | 900 | 30% | 1 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 1192 | 1332 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Northampton Town | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Galanopoulos Super League 1 · 2021 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Damian Szymański Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €1.2M | €2.5M | rose |
| Ibrahim Kane Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Talles Costa Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Oğulcan Ülgün Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Muhammed Gümüşkaya Super Lig · 2022 | 21 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Niclas Eliasson Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Fousseni Diabaté Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €2.3M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Heart of Midl. | Birmingham | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Birmingham | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €700k |
| 25 Jul 2024 | Brighton | Birmingham | €590k | €450k |
| 31 May 2024 | Northampton | Brighton | Free / loan | €450k |
| 29 Jul 2023 | Brighton | Northampton | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Brighton U21 | Brighton | Unknown | €300k |
| 31 May 2023 | Northampton | Brighton U21 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 25 Jul 2022 | Brighton U21 | Northampton | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Brighton U18 | Brighton U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jul 2018 | Hearts FC U17 | Brighton U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hearts Youth | Hearts FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Rangers Youth | Hearts Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.