Elías Ólafsson

26 yrs · Goalkeeper · Iceland
FC Midtjylland · Superliga · Foot: right · Height: 201 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.4M – €4.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.2M – €6.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.8M – €7.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.7M – €5.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.4M – €4.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.2M – €6.8M
Projected value (24 months)€1.8M – €7.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Elías Ólafsson's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-6.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-7.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 89

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average56.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.4M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationHigh+28% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.47
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1620 (82% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
57 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.47 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1562
Opponent strength
1237
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.8M – €7.9M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -40% to +14%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1620 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
67 (all positions)
Relative output kept
71%–125%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
67%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC MidtjyllandSuperligaGK18162082%000.000.00123715620.47
2024/25FC MidtjyllandSuperligaGK20180091%000.000.00129013990.38
2022/23FC MidtjyllandSuperligaGK763032%000.000.00124313680.47
2021/22FC MidtjyllandSuperligaGK14125563%010.070.03128914290.45

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland10930001494
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Midtjylland5362001322
2025/26Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland327000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland6521001531
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland5450001397
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland4390001553
2022/23Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland19000—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland3270001510
2021/22Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jesse Joronen
Superliga · 2019
26€2.5M€1.7Mfell
Fraser Forster
Scottish Premiership · 2013
25€4.0M€12.0Mrose
Denys Boyko
Premier Liga · 2015
27€5.5M€1.0Mfell
Dominik Kotarski
Super League 1 · 2024
24€5.0M€5.0Mflat
Kenneth Vermeer
Eredivisie · 2013
27€6.5M€6.0Mflat
Vasilios Barkas
Super League 1 · 2020
26€2.4M€1.0Mfell
Jeroen Zoet
Eredivisie · 2015
24€5.0M€8.5Mrose
Frederik Rönnow
Superliga · 2018
26€3.0M€2.4Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2024MafraMidtjyllandFree / loan€650k
18 Jul 2023MidtjyllandMafraFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2021FC FredericiaMidtjyllandFree / loan€300k
11 Aug 2020MidtjyllandFC FredericiaFree / loan€75k
1 Aug 2020Midtjylland U19MidtjyllandUnknown€75k
31 Jul 2020Aarhus FremadMidtjylland U19Free / loan€75k
25 Jul 2019Midtjylland U19Aarhus FremadFree / loan€50k
17 Jul 2018BreidablikMidtjylland U19UnknownData unavailable
16 Oct 2017HafnarfjördurBreidablikFree / loanData unavailable
16 May 2017BreidablikHafnarfjördurFree / loanData unavailable
12 Dec 2016Breidablik U19BreidablikUnknownData unavailable
18 Jun 2013Völsungur ÍFBreidablik U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.