
Elías Ólafsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Elías Ólafsson's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-6.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-7.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.4M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1620 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1562
- Opponent strength
- 1237
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €7.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -40% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1620 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 67 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–125%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | GK | 18 | 1620 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1237 | 1562 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | GK | 20 | 1800 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1290 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | GK | 7 | 630 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1243 | 1368 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | GK | 14 | 1255 | 63% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 1289 | 1429 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 930 | 0 | 0 | 1494 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 362 | 0 | 0 | 1322 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 521 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Joronen Superliga · 2019 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.7M | fell |
| Fraser Forster Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 25 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Denys Boyko Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €5.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Dominik Kotarski Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Kenneth Vermeer Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Vasilios Barkas Super League 1 · 2020 | 26 | €2.4M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jeroen Zoet Eredivisie · 2015 | 24 | €5.0M | €8.5M | rose |
| Frederik Rönnow Superliga · 2018 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Mafra | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €650k |
| 18 Jul 2023 | Midtjylland | Mafra | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Fredericia | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €300k |
| 11 Aug 2020 | Midtjylland | FC Fredericia | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | €75k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Aarhus Fremad | Midtjylland U19 | Free / loan | €75k |
| 25 Jul 2019 | Midtjylland U19 | Aarhus Fremad | Free / loan | €50k |
| 17 Jul 2018 | Breidablik | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 16 Oct 2017 | Hafnarfjördur | Breidablik | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 May 2017 | Breidablik | Hafnarfjördur | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Dec 2016 | Breidablik U19 | Breidablik | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Jun 2013 | Völsungur ÍF | Breidablik U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.