Adrián Bernabé
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adrián Bernabé's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-8.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.7M-14.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.6M-22.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (2494 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €7.6M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2494 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1374
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.6M – €22.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -46% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CM | 32 | 2494 | 73% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 1505 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | DM | 21 | 1461 | 43% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 1503 | 1342 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2 | 72 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Saponara Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €15.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Antonín Barák Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Mattias Svanberg Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Nicolás Domínguez Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €13.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Lovro Majer Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €20.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Tommaso Pobega Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Andrea Colpani Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €18.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Rubén Vargas Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2021 | Man City U23 | Parma | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça U18 | Man City U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Espanyol Youth | Barça Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.